Interesting questions from the GARP SCR aspirants-Part1

 Dear Readers, 

    This is about some interesting questions that my group members on the LinkedIn group "GARP SCR 2023 October exam prep" (https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12842133/) have asked while preparing for the exams. What is interesting about these questions is just how keen the aspirants have been on understanding the content. This is what is precisely required for preparing for the GARP SCR certification exam.  It is the depth  of understanding that really matters and helps you remember the vast content as part of the curriculum. I am sharing those questions with all of you with a hope that it benefits all of you who are preparing for the exam.

So, are you ready for the questions?

Question 1: Question is from Chapter-1 
Why is it that the sea-level rise lags GHG emissions?
(Question posed by a group member from Singapore )

Let us refer to the page 19/227 of the e-book. I have attached a screenshot of the same for you to refer. Let us go step-by-step:

1. Please recall the sea level rises because of two key factors: thermal expansion of water and melting ice especially at the north and solar pole of the earth due to the heat. This is also explained in the attached screenshot.

2. Let us go a little deeper:

i. Why thermal expansion or melting of ice ? --> This is because the sea water gets heated up.

ii.Why sea water gets heated up --> Additional heat trapped by the atmosphere of the earth

iii. Why heat is trapped by atmosphere --> GHG emissions cause the heat (from sun) to reflected back to the earth

iv . Why is the heat refelected back to earth --> This is because GHG gases like CO2, Methane etc..absorb heat and heats up the earth

3. Remember on the same page: 19/227 mentions that "About 93% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases goes into heating the oceans, so we can also look to see if energy, or heat, is accumulating in the oceans (IPCC, 2013)"

4.Now, please note that there is a time lag between when the emissions are released and sea level rises. This is because it takes time to heat up huge volume of ocean water. As an analogy, you would have noticed in your kitchen that if you start to heat a bowl of water - it doesn't start boiling as soon as you start the gas/stove - it takes some time for the water to boil or there is a "lag" in starting the stove/gas and water boiling. Same concept applies to the oceans.

5. Because of all these factors, sea water is getting heated up. Please see the graphs in figure 1.1. You will observe as to how much sea level has risen, how much ice has melted. The effects that we are observing now is because of rapid industrialization and indiscrimate emissions that have been released in last 4-5 decades.

Question 2: What is the difference between exposure and vulnerability? Need to understand in more detail. (Question posed by Natascha Rüeger)

Please consider the below example involving a coastal city to illustrate exposure and vulnerability related to climate risk:

City X is a coastal city located in a region prone to sea-level rise and extreme weather events due to climate change.

1. Exposure:

- Exposure refers to the extent to which a system (in this case, City X) is exposed to climate-related hazards.

In this scenario:

- City X is highly exposed to climate risks because it's located along the coast, which makes it susceptible to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flooding.

- The city's exposure is further increased because it has a significant population, infrastructure, and valuable assets concentrated in vulnerable coastal areas.

- Additionally, City X relies heavily on tourism, which is sensitive to climate-related events like hurricanes and beach erosion. This economic dependence increases exposure.

2. Vulnerability:

- Vulnerability refers to the city's susceptibility or sensitivity to the adverse impacts of climate-related hazards. This means if city has chance to incur huge losses in response to low intensity hazard, its highly vulnerable. On the contrary, if the city can bear strong intensity hazard with minimal losses, it will called least vulnerable.

Several factors contribute to City X's vulnerability:

- Aging Infrastructure: The city's infrastructure, including seawalls, drainage systems, and buildings, is old and not designed to withstand the increased frequency and intensity of storms and flooding associated with climate change. This increases vulnerability.

- Socioeconomic Factors: A large portion of the city's population lives in low-income neighborhoods near the coast. These residents may lack resources to prepare for or recover from climate-related disasters, making them socially vulnerable.

- Lack of Adaptive Measures: City X has been slow to implement climate adaptation measures, such as elevating buildings, improving flood defenses, and establishing emergency response plans, which increases overall vulnerability.

- Economic Dependency: City X's economy heavily relies on coastal tourism. Climate-related events, like hurricanes or beach erosion, can disrupt the tourism industry, causing economic vulnerability.

In summary, City X's exposure to climate risks is high due to its coastal location and economic reliance on vulnerable sectors. Its vulnerability is exacerbated by factors like aging infrastructure, socioeconomic disparities, and a lack of proactive adaptation measures. Understanding exposure and vulnerability helps policymakers and communities develop strategies to mitigate climate risks, such as investing in resilient infrastructure and improving social and economic support systems.

Question 3: Question is from Chapter-1 

"The distribution of modern warming shows that land has heated more than the oceans, but the chapter also mentions that 93% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases goes into heating up the oceans. These two seem contradictory. During the day, land may heat faster, but it will also cool faster at night, and given the temporary nature of this phenomenon, it may explain weather trends during the day rather than long-term climate trends. Any opinions would be appreciated. "(Question posed by Vikram Nagarkar)

Consider this simple equation:

• Heat reflected into space = RS
• Heat received from the sun = S
• Heat absorbed by land = A
• Heat reflected back to earth by atmosphere = RA

RS = S - (A + RA)

As per the text book "About 93% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases goes into heating the oceans, so we can also look to see if energy, or heat, is accumulating in the oceans (IPCC, 2013).". Please note that it talks about the heat trapped by the atmosphere. "RA" as mentioned in the above equation.

Remember: Comparing the volume of ocean is 70% of the earth's size and only 30% is land. It will take a longer time to boil the ocean to the same temperature as the land. This is evident from the below facts.

As per page 24 of the IPCC document: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL.pdf

"On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. Since AR4, instrumental biases in upper-ocean temperature records have been identified and reduced, enhancing confidence in the assessment of change. {3.2}"

Now, If you refer to the surface temperature heating in figure 1.1(a) in Chapter -1 , it shows the temperture rise has been = (1 degree in 2010 - 0.25 degree in 2010) = 0.75 degree. If we subtract 0.11 degree of ocean's warming, this means the land has warmed more than 0.64 degree centrigrade almost 6 times more than the ocean.

In summary, Oceans are indeed absorbing more heat than land but the temperature rise on the land is more than the Ocean.

 

Question 4: Question is from Chapter-6

The risk team at an agricultural company in Easter Europe evaluates crop yield production performance. The evaluation reveals high temperature and water shortages will likely harm crop production, and current company insurance will not mitigate this exposure. The team recommends increasing coverage by purchasing an additional insurance policy that includes area yield protection.
According to the COSO ERM framework, which risk response strategy did the team recommend?
A. Pursuit
B. Sharing
C. Reduction
D. Acceptance

(Question shared by Ivon Dolamic)

The answer should be B here. My reasoning for the answer "B" is the company is mitigating the risk by buying an additional insurance to insure the drop in yield. They are not taking steps to reduce the possibility of drop in yield or increase the yield on the farm.

For some additional reading, 

Risk scenarios and Response strategies example:

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Acceptance:

Scenario: A software development company is launching a new product, and there's a risk that a competitor might release a similar product shortly after. However, the potential costs of delaying the product launch to address this risk outweigh the benefits. The company decides to accept the risk and proceeds with the launch as planned.

Avoidance:

Scenario: An agricultural company is considering expanding its operations to a region prone to extreme weather events. After assessing the potential risks and costs associated with weather-related disruptions, the company decides to avoid the risk by not expanding into that region.

Mitigation/Reduction:

Scenario: A financial institution faces cybersecurity threats. To mitigate the risk of a data breach, the institution invests in robust cybersecurity measures, including firewalls, encryption, and regular employee training on cybersecurity best practices.

Transfer/Sharing:

Scenario: A construction company is working on a major infrastructure project. To transfer the risk of potential delays due to unforeseen weather conditions, the company purchases weather insurance, ensuring they are compensated for project delays caused by adverse weather.

Exploitation:

Scenario: A pharmaceutical company recognizes that a regulatory delay in product approval could create an opportunity to gather additional clinical trial data. By actively pursuing this opportunity and using the delay to strengthen the drug's efficacy case, they aim to gain a competitive advantage in the market.